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0xb831a1d17dc7cc13815e665fb94f34473e33892b
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 34% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 34%Verified PnL#411 of 624
Beats 57%30-day PnL#255 of 594
Beats 52%Win rate#281 of 592
Beats 40%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#369 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board10
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-04
Last seen2026-10-08
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$18K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.79MVolume
65.2%Win rate (sample) · n=379
0.62%PnL ÷ Volume
-$2797-day PnL
$10K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$18.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $244only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$228partial
Liquidity rewards$222
0.65% ROI33% Win rate · n=749
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$28.7K · loses the most in Tech & science -$0.55
Top 5 winning markets
- +$3,865Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?Culture · Yes / No
- +$2,496Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$2,126Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$2,094Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$1,669Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?Culture · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$874Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Culture · No
- -$674Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Politics · Yes
- -$587Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Culture · No
- -$307Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$279Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$18KVerified lifetime PnL
$10KEarned off the board
10Days on board
$8KBoard-day sum
-$2797-day PnL
$10K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 1 | $150 |
| 2026-06 | 1 | $170 |
| 2026-07 | 3 | $535 |
| 2026-08 | 3 | $391 |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $7K |
Which boards
Culture 10
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
65% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $228 (95% maker / 5% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio65%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-01
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$228
Maker rebate$217
Taker rebate$11
Maker share95%
Taker share5%
Window2026-04-02 → 2026-10-11
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$8K
Verified lifetime PnL$18K
Verification gap$10K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)