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Is justaluckydude really profitable on Polymarket?

0xbca08c1bc204a34f2fddbe47b438b9bd42ac9705

Archived snapshot. This address is no longer on the current boards, so this page is no longer refreshed. Board data as of 2026-10-30.

Short answer

Mostly yes. justaluckydude made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 90 days (2026-05-01 to 2026-09-20), adding up to $612K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.40M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 92% of the 625 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 92%Verified PnL#47 of 625
Beats 34%Win rate#370 of 566
Beats 83%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#96 of 592

Compared with the 625 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board90
Archive span201 days
First seen2026-05-01
Last seen2026-09-20
VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$1.40M

Verified lifetime PnL

$47.03MVolume
55.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
2.90%PnL ÷ Volume
2026-05 2026-09

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-30

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.39M

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $9,500only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$169
2.96% ROI24.8% Win rate · n=890

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleMostly taker100% of 496 archived fills were taker fillsHolds to settlementSells are only 0% of turnover in the last 500 fills (over 2.5 h)Mid-price trader53% of 500 buys between 35¢ and 65¢Mainly sports100% of last 500 fills (over 2.5 h) are sports marketsRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Sports +$390.8K

Sports400 pos.+$390.8K

Top 5 winning markets

  1. +$63.6KSpread: Argentina (-1.5)Sports · Cabo Verde
  2. +$55.2KPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta BravesSports · Philadelphia Phillies / Atlanta Braves
  3. +$35.0KTampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesSports · Baltimore Orioles / Tampa Bay Rays
  4. +$32.3KSpread: France (-2.5)Sports · Paraguay
  5. +$31.3KBaltimore Orioles vs. Colorado RockiesSports · Colorado Rockies

Top 5 losing markets

  1. -$43.4KSpread: Spain (-1.5)Sports · Spain / Austria
  2. -$23.8KHouston Astros vs. San Francisco GiantsSports · San Francisco Giants
  3. -$20.8KTampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesSports · New York Yankees
  4. -$18.7KAthletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsSports · Athletics
  5. -$18.6KLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee BrewersSports · Los Angeles Dodgers

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-30

$1.40MVerified lifetime PnL
$787KEarned off the board
90Days on board
$911KBoard-day sum

Month by month

MonthDays on a boardSummed PnL
2026-05 23 $269K
2026-06 19 $227K
2026-07 14 $161K
2026-08 21 $194K
2026-09 13 $60K

Which boards

Sports 90All markets 37

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet

Measured layers

0% passive fills in the recent window

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

unknown (methods disagree)

Passive ratio0%
Fills measured496
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.

Profit composition

No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$612K
Verified lifetime PnL$1.40M
Verification gap$787K

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Archived 2026-10-30 · not refreshed since then · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-30 (201 snapshots)