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0xbd0477e08d82d35a855ff19644a88a9213d8fbb0
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 76% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 76%Verified PnL#147 of 624
Beats 55%30-day PnL#264 of 594
Beats 60%Win rate#236 of 592
Beats 82%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#107 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board48
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-14
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$315K
Verified lifetime PnL
$11.53MVolume
69.5%Win rate · n=285
2.73%PnL ÷ Volume
$3K7-day PnL
$9K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$315.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $2,479only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$371partial
Liquidity rewards$465
2.73% ROI36.3% Win rate · n=551
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$532.1K · loses the most in Tech & science -$5,950
Top 5 winning markets
- +$54.7KWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Politics · No / Yes
- +$52.3KWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Politics · No / Yes
- +$51.4KUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Politics · Yes / No
- +$48.5KWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- +$41.5KUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$26.0KIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Politics · No / Yes
- -$21.3KUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Politics · Yes
- -$12.7KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$11.5KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$9,520Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Politics · Yes
Covers the 286 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$315KVerified lifetime PnL
$206KEarned off the board
48Days on board
$110KBoard-day sum
$3K7-day PnL
$9K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 9 | $51K |
| 2026-06 | 12 | $32K |
| 2026-07 | 12 | $20K |
| 2026-08 | 8 | $4K |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $1K |
Which boards
Politics 42Mentions 4Sports 3Culture 2All markets 2Finance 1
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $371 (36% maker / 64% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$371
Maker rebate$133
Taker rebate$238
Maker share36%
Taker share64%
Window2026-05-15 → 2026-08-13
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$110K
Verified lifetime PnL$315K
Verification gap$206K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)