ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsourdemocracy2
0xbdcb293dd41148a20895d0e818c0d96c0756e811
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 26% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 26%Verified PnL#459 of 624
Beats 21%30-day PnL#467 of 594
Beats 83%Win rate#101 of 592
Beats 22%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#478 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board20
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-10-30
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$7K
Verified lifetime PnL
$10.81MVolume
84.3%Win rate (sample) · n=396
0.06%PnL ÷ Volume
-$1K7-day PnL
-$1K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$6,583
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $669only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$29partial
Liquidity rewards$521
0.06% ROI79.9% Win rate · n=418
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$99.2K · loses the most in Sports -$53.5
Top 5 winning markets
- +$626.8KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$185.8KNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$43.4KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$17.9KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$1,954No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$338.3KFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$172.5KFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- -$111.9KNo change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- -$87.9KFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- -$21.4KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$7KVerified lifetime PnL
$5KEarned off the board
20Days on board
$2KBoard-day sum
-$1K7-day PnL
-$1K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $4 |
| 2026-06 | 2 | $604 |
| 2026-07 | 6 | $494 |
| 2026-08 | 6 | $414 |
| 2026-09 | 4 | $175 |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $252 |
Which boards
Finance 15Weather 3Tech 1Politics 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
17% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $29 (71% maker / 29% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio17%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-04
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$29
Maker rebate$21
Taker rebate$9
Maker share71%
Taker share29%
Window2026-04-30 → 2026-09-16
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$2K
Verified lifetime PnL$7K
Verification gap$5K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)