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BTCisaHarshMistress
0xbdd11cc911ec8ed95887e56dc253d70cb36b0c4f
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 14% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 14%Verified PnL#990 of 1156
Beats 43%Win rate#547 of 963
Beats 14%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#854 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board24
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-05-03
Last seen2026-09-19
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$17K
Verified lifetime PnL
$4.37MVolume
61.9%Win rate (sample) · n=399
-0.37%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$16.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $29only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$925
-0.38% ROI58.3% Win rate · n=424
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$1,441 · loses the most in Crypto -$9,634
Top 5 winning markets
- +$4,478Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?Sports · Yes / No
- +$3,107Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?Sports · Yes
- +$2,549Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Politics · Yes
- +$2,245US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Politics · No
- +$2,196Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11?Crypto · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$10.8KWill Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?Crypto · Yes
- -$5,410Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?Politics · Yes
- -$4,864Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?Politics · No
- -$3,135Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?Politics · Yes
- -$2,393Nothing Ever Happens: JanuaryPolitics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 25 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$13.9K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$17KVerified lifetime PnL
$20KBelow board-day sum
24Days on board
$3KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 2 | $161 |
| 2026-06 | 1 | $195 |
| 2026-07 | 3 | $210 |
| 2026-08 | 10 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 8 | $752 |
Which boards
Finance 15Sports 12Politics 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
80% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio80%
Fills measured494
Window ends2026-10-11
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$3K
Verified lifetime PnL-$17K
Verification gap-$20K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)