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0xc004b035b67be284e0d1db56c39e865df6cac095
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 35% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 35%Verified PnL#405 of 624
Beats 60%30-day PnL#234 of 594
Beats 36%Win rate#375 of 592
Beats 89%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#63 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board37
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-17
Last seen2026-10-08
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$20K
Verified lifetime PnL
$494KVolume
55.5%Win rate (sample) · n=398
3.82%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$12K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$20.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,699only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$81partial
Liquidity rewards$823
4.07% ROI54.6% Win rate · n=405
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Tech & science +$13.6K · loses the most in Other -$199
Top 5 winning markets
- +$4,782Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Culture · Yes
- +$4,454Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Politics · Yes / No
- +$3,054Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech & science · No
- +$2,230Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Politics · Yes
- +$1,360Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech & science · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$653Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?Tech & science · No / Yes
- -$599Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$428Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$427Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Tech & science · No
- -$365Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$20KVerified lifetime PnL
$11KEarned off the board
37Days on board
$9KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$12K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 3 | $133 |
| 2026-06 | 7 | $4K |
| 2026-07 | 6 | $415 |
| 2026-08 | 12 | $899 |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $568 |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $2K |
Which boards
Tech 35Finance 2Culture 2Politics 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
30% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $81 (69% maker / 31% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio30%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$81
Maker rebate$56
Taker rebate$25
Maker share69%
Taker share31%
Window2026-05-03 → 2026-10-09
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$9K
Verified lifetime PnL$20K
Verification gap$11K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)