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0xc4086b708cd3a50880b7069add1a1a80000f4675
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 74% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 74%Verified PnL#159 of 624
Beats 61%30-day PnL#232 of 594
Beats 39%Win rate#356 of 592
Beats 40%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#368 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board33
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-17
Last seen2026-09-04
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$280K
Verified lifetime PnL
$44.87MVolume
57.8%Win rate (sample) · n=386
0.62%PnL ÷ Volume
$8K7-day PnL
$12K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$280.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $14only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,386partial
Liquidity rewards$7,774partial
0.62% ROI57.6% Win rate · n=387
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$160.2K · loses the most in Other -$3,604
Top 5 winning markets
- +$38.6KWill Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- +$32.9KFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$28.0KWill the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats?Politics · No / Yes
- +$20.7KNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$19.3KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$23.6KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Politics · No
- -$18.2KWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · No
- -$16.3KMaduro out by January 31, 2026?Politics · No
- -$12.2KFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$8,190Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?Finance · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$280KVerified lifetime PnL
$268KEarned off the board
33Days on board
$13KBoard-day sum
$8K7-day PnL
$12K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $1K |
| 2026-05 | 12 | $5K |
| 2026-06 | 5 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 9 | $1K |
| 2026-08 | 2 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 2 | $210 |
Which boards
Politics 25Sports 5Crypto 3Weather 2Mentions 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
98% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio98%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-10-30
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$7
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-04-08 → 2026-10-27
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$13K
Verified lifetime PnL$280K
Verification gap$268K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)