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0xc5e82bcc29122a2ec9d912b6784235878c368354
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 27% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 27%Verified PnL#452 of 624
Beats 57%30-day PnL#254 of 594
Beats 0%Win rate#592 of 592
Beats 31%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#423 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board5
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-08-18
Last seen2026-10-08
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$8K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.62MVolume
4.6%Win rate (sample) · n=368
0.31%PnL ÷ Volume
$1507-day PnL
$10K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$7,599
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid$0only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$120partial
Liquidity rewards$21
0.29% ROI4.61% Win rate · n=369
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$11.4K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$11.1KWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$5,353Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$4,412Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$3,078Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$2,924Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,512Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Culture · No / Yes
- -$1,511Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$1,505Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Culture · No / Yes
- -$1,505Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?Culture · No / Yes
- -$1,500Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?Culture · No / Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$8KVerified lifetime PnL
$2KBelow board-day sum
5Days on board
$10KBoard-day sum
$1507-day PnL
$10K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 4 | $523 |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $9K |
Which boards
Culture 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
98% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $120 (92% maker / 8% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio98%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-07
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$120
Maker rebate$110
Taker rebate$10
Maker share92%
Taker share8%
Window2026-08-19 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$10K
Verified lifetime PnL$8K
Verification gap-$2K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)