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operationcastle
0xd3a6e523c440f94f9259398fbcf7b5cc5ccffd55
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 87% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 87%Verified PnL#140 of 1130
Beats 81%30-day PnL#149 of 810
Beats 14%Win rate#796 of 928
Beats 84%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#148 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board40
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-26
Last seen2026-09-20
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$557K
Verified lifetime PnL
$16.69MVolume
46.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
3.34%PnL ÷ Volume
$64K7-day PnL
$80K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$557.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $373only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$724partial
Liquidity rewards$3,411
3.34% ROI45.7% Win rate · n=407
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$653.1K · loses the most in Finance -$23.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$77.4KWill Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Politics · No / Yes
- +$65.5KWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Politics · No
- +$63.7KWill Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Politics · Yes / No
- +$57.9KWill Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?Politics · Yes
- +$51.4KWill Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$62.9KWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · No
- -$26.8KWill Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?Politics · No
- -$19.9KWill the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?Politics · Yes
- -$18.8KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$16.4KWill Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 7 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$15.0K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$557KVerified lifetime PnL
$535KEarned off the board
40Days on board
$22KBoard-day sum
$64K7-day PnL
$80K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $584 |
| 2026-05 | 13 | $10K |
| 2026-06 | 9 | $9K |
| 2026-07 | 5 | $964 |
| 2026-08 | 9 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 2 | $176 |
Which boards
Politics 39Crypto 1
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $724 (98% maker / 2% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$724
Maker rebate$711
Taker rebate$13
Maker share98%
Taker share2%
Window2026-04-13 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$22K
Verified lifetime PnL$557K
Verification gap$535K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)