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0xd4f904ecac0ff22ac6601de6b972d4f8b6b4f619
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 1% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 1%Verified PnL#616 of 624
Beats 36%30-day PnL#375 of 594
Beats 56%Win rate#256 of 592
Beats 0%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#619 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board33
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-12
Last seen2026-08-26
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$1.53M
Verified lifetime PnL
$12.48MVolume
68.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-12.30%PnL ÷ Volume
$7717-day PnL
$2K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$1.53M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $613only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$10.0Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$281
-12.3% ROI67.6% Win rate · n=404
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$173.5K · loses the most in Sports -$1.63M
Top 5 winning markets
- +$128.2KWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- +$75.3KLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group ASports · Bilibili Gaming
- +$63.8KWill Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?Politics · Yes
- +$24.6KInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper RuudSports · Jannik Sinner
- +$21.3KWill Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Tech & science · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1.62MWill Spain win on 2026-06-15?Sports · Yes
- -$87.4KWill the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 23?Crypto · No
- -$78.0KDota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5)Sports · Team Spirit / Team Yandex
- -$44.5KWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?Crypto · No
- -$35.6KDota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerSports · Heroic
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$1.53MVerified lifetime PnL
$1.97MBelow board-day sum
33Days on board
$441KBoard-day sum
$7717-day PnL
$2K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 9 | $425K |
| 2026-05 | 9 | $7K |
| 2026-06 | 10 | $9K |
| 2026-07 | 4 | $839 |
| 2026-08 | 1 | $63 |
Which boards
Crypto 30Sports 4All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
92% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $10K (100% maker / 0% taker); recent window rebate share 0%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio92%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-21
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$10K
Maker rebate$10K
Taker rebate$8
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-04-06 → 2026-09-12
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$328
Rebate$0
Net total$328
Rebate share0%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$441K
Verified lifetime PnL-$1.53M
Verification gap-$1.97M
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)