ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
quantbarbie
0xd4fa2e10c74ab94bc23414989a516b07386ddcc8
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 60% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 60%Verified PnL#445 of 1130
Beats 20%Win rate#738 of 928
Beats 31%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#658 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board49
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-28
Last seen2026-09-19
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$67K
Verified lifetime PnL
$28.54MVolume
50.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
0.24%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$66.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $4only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$0
0.23% ROI48.9% Win rate · n=413
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Crypto +$4,211
Top 5 winning markets
- +$1,585Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETCrypto · Down
- +$1,504Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETCrypto · Up
- +$1,471Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ETCrypto · Down
- +$1,374Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ETCrypto · Down
- +$1,320Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ETCrypto · Down
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,444Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ETCrypto · Down
- -$1,437Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ETCrypto · Down
- -$1,365Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ETCrypto · Up
- -$1,347Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ETCrypto · Down
- -$1,344Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ETCrypto · Down
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 13 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$23.66). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$67KVerified lifetime PnL
$50KEarned off the board
49Days on board
$16KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $392 |
| 2026-05 | 8 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 12 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 13 | $6K |
| 2026-08 | 8 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $2K |
Which boards
Crypto 49
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
100% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio100%
Fills measured462
Window ends2026-10-14
Window scope0 days
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$16K
Verified lifetime PnL$67K
Verification gap$50K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)