ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
0xd8c4d450…
0xd8c4d45000b7976d897ab79c21780e46faaa848d
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 64% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 64%Verified PnL#397 of 1130
Beats 27%30-day PnL#586 of 810
Beats 0%Win rate#925 of 928
Beats 29%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#674 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board17
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-03-20
Last seen2026-07-05
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$87K
Verified lifetime PnL
$41.00MVolume
12.2%Win rate (sample) · n=369
0.21%PnL ÷ Volume
-$07-day PnL
-$030-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$86.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $51only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$535partial
Liquidity rewards$643
0.21% ROI12.2% Win rate · n=369
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$257.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$14.4KWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$10.9KWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Culture · Yes / No
- +$9,926Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Culture · Yes
- +$9,661Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$9,511Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$3,994Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?Culture · Yes
- -$3,498Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?Culture · Yes
- -$2,883Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?Culture · Yes
- -$2,513Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Culture · Yes
- -$2,503Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$87KVerified lifetime PnL
$42KEarned off the board
17Days on board
$45KBoard-day sum
-$07-day PnL
-$030-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $5K |
| 2026-04 | 3 | $23K |
| 2026-05 | 8 | $15K |
| 2026-06 | 3 | $787 |
| 2026-07 | 1 | $260 |
Which boards
Culture 17
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $535 (98% maker / 2% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$535
Maker rebate$522
Taker rebate$13
Maker share98%
Taker share2%
Window2026-04-01 → 2026-07-09
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$45K
Verified lifetime PnL$87K
Verification gap$42K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)