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Noahrichards98
0xe57ab8ec1bd537476c1986e9768fbbc2ec99e196
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 38% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 38%Verified PnL#713 of 1156
Beats 65%Win rate#337 of 963
Beats 88%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#119 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board26
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-11-05
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$11K
Verified lifetime PnL
$195KVolume
73%Win rate · n=37
3.92%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$10.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid$672
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$22
5.50% ROI65.8% Win rate · n=41
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$5,477 · loses the most in Sports -$1,147
Top 5 winning markets
- +$3,114Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Crypto · No
- +$2,476Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics · No
- +$1,130Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Politics · No
- +$1,047US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Politics · Yes
- +$891US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,668Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Politics · No
- -$1,457US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics · Yes
- -$985Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Tech & science · Yes
- -$945Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?Sports · Yes
- -$822Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics · No / Yes
Covers all 46 closed positions this wallet has. Includes 4 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$4,049). Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$11KVerified lifetime PnL
$6KEarned off the board
26Days on board
$4KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $209 |
| 2026-05 | 5 | $587 |
| 2026-06 | 4 | $371 |
| 2026-07 | 2 | $482 |
| 2026-08 | 9 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 4 | $189 |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $745 |
Which boards
Finance 17Crypto 4Tech 2Sports 2Politics 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
7% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio7%
Fills measured120
Window ends2026-10-13
Window scope214 days
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$4K
Verified lifetime PnL$11K
Verification gap$6K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)