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← All boardsTortugaGorda
0xea2f794a7f0ce05e4bbd357b3ccbb3bd2048a8ef
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 63% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 63%Verified PnL#227 of 624
Beats 21%30-day PnL#465 of 594
Beats 8%Win rate#544 of 592
Beats 58%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#260 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board10
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-22
Last seen2026-08-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$122K
Verified lifetime PnL
$9.94MVolume
35.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
1.24%PnL ÷ Volume
$8217-day PnL
-$1K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$122.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $444only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$19partial
Liquidity rewards$176
1.23% ROI35.3% Win rate · n=402
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$97.8K · loses the most in Finance -$14.2K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$47.8KWill Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Politics · Yes
- +$28.2KWill Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Politics · Yes
- +$21.3KWill Kamala Harris go on SNL?Culture · Yes
- +$20.8KZohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Politics · Yes
- +$13.5KWill Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?Culture · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$7,862Will Trump say "tax" 15 or more times during Georgia speech on Oct 15?Culture · No / Yes
- -$7,425Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- -$7,128Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?Finance · Yes
- -$6,199Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- -$5,786Will Trump say “Million / Billion / Trillion” 15+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$122KVerified lifetime PnL
$120KEarned off the board
10Days on board
$2KBoard-day sum
$8217-day PnL
-$1K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 1 | $180 |
| 2026-06 | 1 | $937 |
| 2026-07 | 6 | $781 |
| 2026-08 | 2 | $132 |
Which boards
Politics 9Culture 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
68% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $19 (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio68%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-14
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$19
Maker rebate$19
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-04-19 → 2026-07-08
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$2K
Verified lifetime PnL$122K
Verification gap$120K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)