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johnashbough
0xef13bdcecd9c13e4a07bb20924657f3b110263d9
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 31% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 31%Verified PnL#777 of 1130
Beats 36%30-day PnL#517 of 810
Beats 35%Win rate#596 of 928
Beats 81%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#175 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board12
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-08-11
Last seen2026-09-30
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$5K
Verified lifetime PnL
$99KVolume
57.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
2.82%PnL ÷ Volume
-$2K7-day PnL
$1K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$4,803
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $142only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$10partial
Liquidity rewards$0
4.83% ROI57.5% Win rate · n=400
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$816 · loses the most in Weather -$203
Top 5 winning markets
- +$216Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?Finance · Yes
- +$215Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Politics · Yes / No
- +$186Will “Nuevayol” by Bad Bunny win Best Latin at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Culture · No / Yes
- +$183Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Politics · No
- +$181Will the #1 global Netflix show have between 12 and 15 million views this week?Culture · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$183Will Trump say "Corn" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?Politics · No
- -$158Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$154Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?Finance · No
- -$154Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in October?Finance · No
- -$146Will Trudy peak at Category 3?Weather · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$5KVerified lifetime PnL
$5KEarned off the board
12Days on board
$287Board-day sum
-$2K7-day PnL
$1K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 6 | $106 |
| 2026-09 | 6 | $181 |
Which boards
Mentions 10Finance 3Culture 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
6% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $10 (0% maker / 100% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
aggressive (taker)
Passive ratio6%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$10
Maker rebate$0
Taker rebate$10
Maker share0%
Taker share100%
Window2026-08-23 → 2026-08-23
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$287
Verified lifetime PnL$5K
Verification gap$5K
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)