ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
Umaroth
0xefde9ff487fae209ab6e3157a8acb4276f9c783d
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 28% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 28%Verified PnL#446 of 624
Beats 18%30-day PnL#482 of 594
Beats 65%Win rate#207 of 592
Beats 24%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#469 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board35
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-21
Last seen2026-10-08
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$9K
Verified lifetime PnL
$12.61MVolume
71.6%Win rate (sample) · n=394
0.09%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$8,685
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $141only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$2,351partial
Liquidity rewards$13.6Kpartial
0.07% ROI71.6% Win rate · n=394
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$3,797 · loses the most in Politics -$17.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$5,968Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$4,500Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Culture · Yes
- +$3,201Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Crypto · Yes
- +$2,291US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$2,146Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$3,765Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Politics · No
- -$3,203Lighter Airdrop on December 29?Crypto · Yes
- -$2,355US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$2,300Paris curfew by October 19?Politics · No
- -$2,065Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$9KVerified lifetime PnL
$1KEarned off the board
35Days on board
$8KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $731 |
| 2026-05 | 7 | $1K |
| 2026-06 | 4 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 10 | $613 |
| 2026-08 | 7 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 5 | $1K |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $189 |
Which boards
Politics 12Mentions 10Tech 6Finance 6Sports 5Culture 1Weather 1Crypto 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
96% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio96%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-07
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$2K
Taker rebate$4
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-02-03 → 2026-10-30
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$8K
Verified lifetime PnL$9K
Verification gap$1K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)