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0xeff9837de49ff99f1a2e5f7fa03e27a07b3c05fd
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 34% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 34%Verified PnL#412 of 624
Beats 39%30-day PnL#362 of 594
Beats 7%Win rate#545 of 592
Beats 33%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#411 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board27
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-21
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$18K
Verified lifetime PnL
$3.66MVolume
35.2%Win rate (sample) · n=338
0.38%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$2K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$17.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $323only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$778partial
Liquidity rewards$217
0.48% ROI35.1% Win rate · n=339
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$66.4K · loses the most in Crypto -$11.2K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$9,565Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$8,162Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$7,720US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Politics · Yes
- +$7,510Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$6,324Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$4,997US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$3,189SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Finance · Yes
- -$2,989Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?Culture · No
- -$2,730Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Politics · No
- -$2,716Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ETCrypto · Down
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$18KVerified lifetime PnL
$8KBelow board-day sum
27Days on board
$25KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$2K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $3K |
| 2026-04 | 1 | $198 |
| 2026-05 | 8 | $5K |
| 2026-06 | 8 | $6K |
| 2026-08 | 5 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 1 | $72 |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $7K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $3K |
Which boards
Culture 15Politics 11Finance 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
99% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $778 (99% maker / 1% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio99%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-10-01
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$778
Maker rebate$771
Taker rebate$7
Maker share99%
Taker share1%
Window2026-02-15 → 2026-10-20
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$25K
Verified lifetime PnL$18K
Verification gap-$8K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)