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← All boardsFireMage31
0xfae264c49df08f188c5fb9fddefb4585ca73c12f
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 28% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 28%Verified PnL#445 of 624
Beats 29%30-day PnL#420 of 594
Beats 97%Win rate#13 of 592
Beats 88%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#75 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board19
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-30
Last seen2026-09-06
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$9K
Verified lifetime PnL
$250KVolume
98.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
3.49%PnL ÷ Volume
$1407-day PnL
$5530-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$8,739
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $133only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$6partial
Liquidity rewards$43
3.49% ROI94% Win rate · n=419
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$7,668 · loses the most in Tech & science -$1,107
Top 5 winning markets
- +$8,468Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?Politics · Yes
- +$2,270Will Keir Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Culture · No
- +$1,083Will Pete Crow-Armstrong hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?Sports · Yes
- +$980Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Culture · Yes
- +$665Will Chappell Roan be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?Culture · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,242Will "Shit" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Tech & science · Yes
- -$724Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?Culture · No
- -$410Will Tanille Johnson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?Politics · Yes
- -$407Will Tony McQuail win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?Politics · Yes
- -$406Will Bianca Mugyenyi win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$9KVerified lifetime PnL
$7KEarned off the board
19Days on board
$2KBoard-day sum
$1407-day PnL
$5530-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $215 |
| 2026-05 | 4 | $382 |
| 2026-06 | 2 | $210 |
| 2026-07 | 5 | $656 |
| 2026-08 | 6 | $225 |
| 2026-09 | 1 | $88 |
Which boards
Culture 13Sports 4Mentions 1Tech 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
21% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $6 (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio21%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-16
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$6
Maker rebate$6
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-09-28 → 2026-09-28
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$2K
Verified lifetime PnL$9K
Verification gap$7K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)