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← All boardsSpringlyFawl
0xfbedb045813457be883ad83dd1078e88a2a1a665
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 41% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 41%Verified PnL#368 of 624
Beats 88%30-day PnL#69 of 594
Beats 3%Win rate#569 of 592
Beats 76%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#144 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board10
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-08-18
Last seen2026-10-09
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$31K
Verified lifetime PnL
$1.09MVolume
28.9%Win rate (sample) · n=388
2.25%PnL ÷ Volume
-$34K7-day PnL
$185K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$30.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $8only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,143partial
Liquidity rewards$14.0K
2.81% ROI18.6% Win rate · n=602
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$57.2K · loses the most in Crypto -$83.34
Top 5 winning markets
- +$12.9KWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · No
- +$5,622Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · No / Yes
- +$4,773Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Politics · No
- +$4,500Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics · No / Yes
- +$4,438Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$438Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$429Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Politics · Yes
- -$427Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Politics · Yes
- -$407Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Politics · Yes
- -$393Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$31KVerified lifetime PnL
$16KEarned off the board
10Days on board
$15KBoard-day sum
-$34K7-day PnL
$185K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 2 | $726 |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $3K |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $11K |
Which boards
Politics 5Tech 4Sports 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
73% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (88% maker / 12% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio73%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$138
Maker share88%
Taker share12%
Window2026-08-11 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$15K
Verified lifetime PnL$31K
Verification gap$16K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)