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0xfd07a6ddb8a7e01b7327a991727ba28d57a36bb7
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 16% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 16%Verified PnL#524 of 624
Beats 26%30-day PnL#435 of 594
Beats 0%Win rate#587 of 592
Beats 18%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#508 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board15
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-06-29
Last seen2026-09-08
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$2K
Verified lifetime PnL
$3.26MVolume
14.3%Win rate (sample) · n=329
-0.02%PnL ÷ Volume
$1697-day PnL
-$14730-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$2,058
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $79only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$194partial
Liquidity rewards$178
-0.06% ROI9.13% Win rate · n=515
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$70.9K · loses the most in Politics -$6,752
Top 5 winning markets
- +$5,025Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?Culture · Yes
- +$4,373Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?Culture · Yes
- +$4,196Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Culture · Yes
- +$3,776Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?Culture · Yes
- +$3,625Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,550Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$2,285Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Culture · Yes
- -$2,128Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$2,123Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Politics · No
- -$2,110Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$2KVerified lifetime PnL
$4KBelow board-day sum
15Days on board
$2KBoard-day sum
$1697-day PnL
-$14730-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 2 | $200 |
| 2026-07 | 5 | $564 |
| 2026-08 | 5 | $841 |
| 2026-09 | 3 | $183 |
Which boards
Culture 15
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
90% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $194 (95% maker / 5% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio90%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-09
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$194
Maker rebate$184
Taker rebate$10
Maker share95%
Taker share5%
Window2026-03-27 → 2026-10-30
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$2K
Verified lifetime PnL-$2K
Verification gap-$4K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)