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0xfd2b117412a698f322b0cd18d6827dad262b8e50
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 41% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 41%Verified PnL#365 of 624
Beats 93%30-day PnL#42 of 594
Beats 43%Win rate#336 of 592
Beats 25%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#464 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board20
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-05
Last seen2026-08-13
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$32K
Verified lifetime PnL
$28.68MVolume
60.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400
0.11%PnL ÷ Volume
$366K7-day PnL
$367K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$32.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $5,037only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$543partial
Liquidity rewards$2,492
0.11% ROI46.9% Win rate · n=520
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$664.5K · loses the most in Finance -$27.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$264.0KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$107.8KRams vs. SeahawksSports · Seahawks / Rams
- +$102.1KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · Yes
- +$81.0KBills vs. TexansSports · Texans / Bills
- +$79.1KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$159.7KWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · No
- -$149.3KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- -$135.5KKamala Harris wins the popular vote?Politics · Yes
- -$88.9KWill Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Politics · No
- -$42.9KBills vs. BroncosSports · Broncos / Bills
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$32KVerified lifetime PnL
$36KBelow board-day sum
20Days on board
$68KBoard-day sum
$366K7-day PnL
$367K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 4 | $33K |
| 2026-06 | 5 | $1K |
| 2026-07 | 8 | $32K |
| 2026-08 | 3 | $1K |
Which boards
Politics 16Finance 4Sports 2Culture 1All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
89% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $543 (60% maker / 40% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio89%
Fills measured495
Window ends2026-10-29
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$543
Maker rebate$325
Taker rebate$218
Maker share60%
Taker share40%
Window2026-05-08 → 2026-08-19
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$68K
Verified lifetime PnL$32K
Verification gap-$36K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)