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ManifoldWhaleTakesPolymarket
0xfe4a60f991f8a488bf395a4af2b2bfd38453ac42
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 6% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 6%Verified PnL#1055 of 1130
Beats 13%30-day PnL#697 of 810
Beats 51%Win rate#452 of 928
Beats 2%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#932 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board6
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-05-06
Last seen2026-05-29
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$124K
Verified lifetime PnL
$4.27MVolume
66%Win rate · n=318
-2.91%PnL ÷ Volume
-$7K7-day PnL
-$7K30-day PnL
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$124.2K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $60only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$102partial
Liquidity rewards$1,493
-2.91% ROI65.9% Win rate · n=323
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$39.3K · loses the most in Politics -$162.0K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$20.0KFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$16.1KWill Biden finish his term?Politics · Yes
- +$11.3KTaylor Swift engaged in 2024?Culture · No / Yes
- +$11.1KWill Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview?Culture · No
- +$9,772Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$91.4KWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics · Yes / No
- -$43.5KFavorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?Politics · Kamala
- -$31.0KFed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$20.4KIsrael military action against Iran by Friday?Politics · No
- -$18.5KWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Politics · Yes
Covers the 318 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 2 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$2,707). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$124KVerified lifetime PnL
$126KBelow board-day sum
6Days on board
$2KBoard-day sum
-$7K7-day PnL
-$7K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 6 | $2K |
Which boards
Politics 6
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $102 (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$102
Maker rebate$102
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-09-03 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$2K
Verified lifetime PnL-$124K
Verification gap-$126K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)