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Is Lavincey really profitable on Polymarket?
0x1cdd071bb612de6d66d0c882b676c663697de595
Short answer
Mostly yes. Lavincey made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 75 days (2026-03-23 to 2026-09-19), adding up to $21K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$61K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$20K, last month +$8K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Weather traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 58% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 58%Verified PnL#464 of 1130
Beats 54%30-day PnL#373 of 810
Beats 19%Win rate#747 of 928
Beats 27%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#692 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board75
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-03-23
Last seen2026-09-19
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$61K
Verified lifetime PnL
$36.45MVolume
50.1%Win rate (sample) · n=399
0.17%PnL ÷ Volume
-$20K7-day PnL
$8K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$61.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid$0only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$28.2Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$6,741
0.17% ROI25.3% Win rate · n=897
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$10.6K · loses the most in Culture -$41.3K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$5,715Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?Sports · Yes / No
- +$5,173US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Politics · Yes
- +$4,557Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- +$4,075Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSports · Spain
- +$3,080Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceSports · Norway
Top 5 losing markets
- -$7,498US forces enter Iran by March 31?Politics · No
- -$5,929Netanyahu out by March 31?Politics · No
- -$5,906Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?Culture · No
- -$5,579Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Politics · Yes
- -$5,199Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?Culture · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 2989+ losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$25.8K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$61KVerified lifetime PnL
$40KEarned off the board
75Days on board
$21KBoard-day sum
-$20K7-day PnL
$8K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 3 | $4K |
| 2026-04 | 5 | $5K |
| 2026-05 | 18 | $4K |
| 2026-06 | 23 | $6K |
| 2026-07 | 11 | $916 |
| 2026-08 | 13 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 2 | $87 |
Which boards
Weather 31Sports 29Mentions 15Tech 10Finance 10Politics 8Culture 7
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
visible rebate $28K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$28K
Maker rebate$28K
Taker rebate$25
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-02-18 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$65K
Rebate$350
Net total$65K
Window2026-10-05 → 2026-11-04
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$21K
Verified lifetime PnL$61K
Verification gap$40K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)