What does "verified PnL" mean on ProbPocket?

It is the wallet's lifetime profit and loss as reported by Polymarket's own public profit endpoint (data-api v2 leaderboard, timePeriod=all, per wallet). We do not compute it from trades ourselves; we compare it with what the daily leaderboard shows. As of 2026-11-01, 624 wallets have a verdict.

How often is the data updated?

Once a day. A new daily leaderboard snapshot is added and every board, wallet page and category page is regenerated. A weekly report is frozen once per ISO week. Every page prints the date of the data it shows.

Yes. Polymarket's official PnL already has taker fees deducted: on fee-heavy wallets it matches every cash in and out plus open positions (checked 2026-10-30). Wallet pages list the fees paid separately for reference, as a lower bound.

Is this financial advice or a copy-trading signal?

No. ProbPocket is read-only research about public wallet records. Past results, and especially leaderboard results, say little about future returns.

ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.

Methodology: how ProbPocket verifies Polymarket PnL

Data as of 2026-11-01 · source: daily Polymarket leaderboard archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots), checked against Polymarket's public APIs · methodology

203daily leaderboard snapshots, 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01

74,683distinct addresses seen on any daily board

624wallets with a lifetime verdict

1463wallets with volume / win-rate basics

What we measure

Polymarket's daily leaderboard lists the wallets that made the most on a given day. It never lists the days a wallet lost. If you add up the days a wallet appears, you get a number that can only flatter it. ProbPocket keeps a copy of the board every day and puts that sum next to the wallet's verified lifetime PnL.

Board-day sum: the sum of the daily PnL the overall board credited to a wallet on the days it appeared in our archive.
Verified lifetime PnL: Polymarket's own all-time profit figure for the wallet (taker fees already deducted).
Verdict: Holds up if lifetime PnL ≥ board-day sum; Overstated if lifetime is positive but below it; Net negative if lifetime is below zero. As of 2026-11-01: 421 hold up, 89 overstated, 114 net negative.
Execution style and rebates: maker/taker fill mix from recent fills, and maker/taker rebate events from the public activity feed.
Fees: taker fees reverse-solved from the activity feed's cash residual and accumulated daily into an archive (979 of 1044 wallets so far; earlier fees are unknown, not zero).
Win rate: share of settled positions that closed in profit, sampled from up to 400 closed positions per wallet.

Data sources

Daily leaderboards: data-api.polymarket.com/v1/leaderboard (day / week / month / all, nine categories, top 50).
Lifetime PnL: data-api.polymarket.com/v2/leaderboard with timePeriod=all per wallet.
Activity (fees, rebates, 30-day composition): data-api.polymarket.com/activity.
Win rate and volume: Polymarket closed-positions and leaderboard endpoints.

Update schedule

Daily refresh; each page shows its data date. Weekly reports are written on the first refresh of each ISO week and then frozen, so their numbers can be cited.

Limits

The archive starts on 2026-03-19. Board days before that are not counted, and some days are missing (203 snapshots in the window).
Lifetime PnL covers the wallet's whole history, which can begin before the archive.
Official PnL already has taker fees deducted; the fees a wallet paid are listed separately for reference.
Category pages show lifetime PnL across all markets, not per category; Polymarket does not publish per-category lifetime figures beyond its own top-50 boards.
Wallet names are pseudonymous Polymarket usernames. A wallet is not a person, and one person can run many wallets.
A dash (—) means unknown or not measured, never zero.

Also see the board-page method note and the step-by-step guide.

FAQ

What does "verified PnL" mean on ProbPocket?: It is the wallet's lifetime profit and loss as reported by Polymarket's own public profit endpoint (data-api v2 leaderboard, timePeriod=all, per wallet). We do not compute it from trades ourselves; we compare it with what the daily leaderboard shows. As of 2026-11-01, 624 wallets have a verdict.
How often is the data updated?: Once a day. A new daily leaderboard snapshot is added and every board, wallet page and category page is regenerated. A weekly report is frozen once per ISO week. Every page prints the date of the data it shows.
Are fees included?: Yes. Polymarket's official PnL already has taker fees deducted: on fee-heavy wallets it matches every cash in and out plus open positions (checked 2026-10-30). Wallet pages list the fees paid separately for reference, as a lower bound.
Is this financial advice or a copy-trading signal?: No. ProbPocket is read-only research about public wallet records. Past results, and especially leaderboard results, say little about future returns.