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Is ShyGuy1 really profitable on Polymarket?

0x1f66796b45581868376365aef54b51eb84184c8d

Short answer

Less than the leaderboard suggests. ShyGuy1 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 57 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-09-05), adding up to $48K on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$46K: a gap of $2K that can only come from losing days the board never shows. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$9, last month -$826.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Weather traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 48% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 48%Verified PnL#323 of 624
Beats 22%30-day PnL#462 of 594
Beats 64%Win rate#211 of 592
Beats 38%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#381 of 620

Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board57
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-09-05
VerdictOverstated

At a glance

$46K

Verified lifetime PnL

$8.23MVolume
71.3%Win rate (sample) · n=387
0.56%PnL ÷ Volume
$97-day PnL
-$82630-day PnL
2026-03 2026-09

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$45.7K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $315only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,374partial
Liquidity rewards$566
0.56% ROI32.5% Win rate · n=850

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleLongshot buyer78% of 434 buys at ≤ 10¢Mostly maker87% of 495 archived fills were maker (resting order) fillsMainly weather99% of last 500 fills (over 62.6 days) are weather marketsAverages down49% of 68 multi-buy positions added 10%+ below the first priceRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Weather +$176.6K · loses the most in Politics -$1,522

Weather347 pos.+$176.6K
Culture7 pos.+$1,783
Finance6 pos.+$348
Sports5 pos.+$54
Tech & science2 pos.-$792
Politics33 pos.-$1,522

Top 5 winning markets

  1. +$8,141Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?Weather · Yes / No
  2. +$7,185Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25?Weather · Yes
  3. +$5,487Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 3?Weather · Yes
  4. +$4,662Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 28?Weather · Yes
  5. +$4,561Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 20?Weather · Yes

Top 5 losing markets

  1. -$2,234Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 12?Weather · No
  2. -$2,097Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?Weather · Yes
  3. -$1,882Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 19?Weather · Yes
  4. -$1,641Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?Politics · Yes
  5. -$1,588Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23?Weather · Yes

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01

$46KVerified lifetime PnL
$2KBelow board-day sum
57Days on board
$48KBoard-day sum
$97-day PnL
-$82630-day PnL

Month by month

MonthDays on a boardSummed PnL
2026-03 5 $16K
2026-04 5 $15K
2026-05 4 $1K
2026-06 13 $9K
2026-07 19 $5K
2026-08 10 $1K
2026-09 1 $23

Which boards

Weather 42Politics 13Sports 5Culture 2

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet

Measured layers

87% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (73% maker / 27% taker)

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

mostly passive

Passive ratio87%
Fills measured495
Window ends2026-09-05
Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Maker-rebate heavy

Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$999
Taker rebate$375
Maker share73%
Taker share27%
Window2026-02-18 → 2026-10-10

Profit composition

No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.

Verification check

Overstated

Board-day sum$48K
Verified lifetime PnL$46K
Verification gap-$2K

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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)