ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs smellyEllie really profitable on Polymarket?
0x38f50488b14a87769e0c5cd6c514b6c2e8ec6824
Short answer
Mostly yes. smellyEllie made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 87 days (2026-04-20 to 2026-10-10), adding up to $19K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$106K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$2K, last month +$18K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Mentions traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 61% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 61%Verified PnL#241 of 624
Beats 65%30-day PnL#207 of 594
Beats 27%Win rate#427 of 592
Beats 75%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#153 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board87
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-20
Last seen2026-10-10
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$106K
Verified lifetime PnL
$4.31MVolume
51.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400
2.14%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$18K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$105.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,932only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$823partial
Liquidity rewards$1,400
2.45% ROI48.7% Win rate · n=425
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$57.2K · loses the most in Weather -$1,103
Top 5 winning markets
- +$6,450US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$6,083Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$4,423Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Culture · Yes
- +$4,310Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Culture · No
- +$3,820Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,264Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Politics · No
- -$1,673Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?Politics · Yes
- -$1,342Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics · Yes
- -$1,227Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO7) - Honor of Kings World Cup PlayoffsSports · Virtus.pro
- -$1,176Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$106KVerified lifetime PnL
$87KEarned off the board
87Days on board
$19KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$18K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $725 |
| 2026-05 | 7 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 10 | $4K |
| 2026-07 | 14 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 26 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 22 | $3K |
| 2026-10 | 6 | $3K |
Which boards
Mentions 46Politics 23Culture 14Tech 13Weather 8Crypto 5Sports 5Finance 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
26% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $823 (53% maker / 47% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio26%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$823
Maker rebate$438
Taker rebate$385
Maker share53%
Taker share47%
Window2026-04-26 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$19K
Verified lifetime PnL$106K
Verification gap$87K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)