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← All boardsIs Barkshire-Hathaway really profitable on Polymarket?
0x66c1a6fe836ff555ca32848646acedbbe93bfa3f
Short answer
Mostly yes. Barkshire-Hathaway made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 90 days (2026-03-22 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $29K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$129K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$2K, last month -$5K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Mentions traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 64% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 64%Verified PnL#224 of 624
Beats 14%30-day PnL#507 of 594
Beats 70%Win rate#176 of 592
Beats 92%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#50 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board90
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-22
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$129K
Verified lifetime PnL
$3.06MVolume
74.6%Win rate (sample) · n=390
4.24%PnL ÷ Volume
-$2K7-day PnL
-$5K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$129.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $2,178only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$320partial
Liquidity rewards$952
4.22% ROI74.4% Win rate · n=391
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$38.3K · loses the most in Crypto -$1,380
Top 5 winning markets
- +$20.0KWill Trump say "Hottest" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?Culture · No
- +$8,906US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics · Yes
- +$8,473Will Trump visit China by April 30?Politics · No
- +$4,093Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?Politics · Yes
- +$3,467US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$7,874Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?Politics · Yes
- -$7,785US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Politics · Yes
- -$7,342Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes
- -$5,024Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Politics · Yes
- -$4,149Will Trump visit China by March 31?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$129KVerified lifetime PnL
$100KEarned off the board
90Days on board
$29KBoard-day sum
-$2K7-day PnL
-$5K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 5 | $6K |
| 2026-04 | 3 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 17 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $6K |
| 2026-07 | 18 | $5K |
| 2026-08 | 14 | $638 |
| 2026-09 | 15 | $4K |
| 2026-10 | 3 | $2K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $35 |
Which boards
Mentions 64Politics 25Culture 11Weather 7Sports 1Tech 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
23% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $320 (33% maker / 67% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio23%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$320
Maker rebate$107
Taker rebate$213
Maker share33%
Taker share67%
Window2026-04-05 → 2026-10-11
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$29K
Verified lifetime PnL$129K
Verification gap$100K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)