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Is OnlyLuckNoBrain really profitable on Polymarket?
0x6a8d1709bfb718d8555d315a983c4816278350f9
Short answer
Mostly yes. OnlyLuckNoBrain made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 67 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $20K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$34K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$3K, last month +$3K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Weather traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 42% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 42%Verified PnL#359 of 624
Beats 41%30-day PnL#347 of 594
Beats 91%Win rate#49 of 592
Beats 49%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#316 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board67
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$34K
Verified lifetime PnL
$3.33MVolume
92.2%Win rate (sample) · n=399
0.89%PnL ÷ Volume
$3K7-day PnL
$3K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$33.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid$0only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$3,391partial
Liquidity rewards$6,252
1.02% ROI43.2% Win rate · n=851
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$66.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$4,068Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on May 7?Weather · Yes
- +$3,147Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5?Weather · Yes
- +$2,318Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6?Weather · Yes
- +$1,411Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?Weather · Yes
- +$1,031Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 29?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$382Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 1?Weather · No
- -$280Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 1?Weather · No
- -$276Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23?Weather · Yes
- -$272Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23?Weather · No
- -$257Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on July 1?Weather · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$34KVerified lifetime PnL
$14KEarned off the board
67Days on board
$20KBoard-day sum
$3K7-day PnL
$3K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $658 |
| 2026-05 | 9 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 13 | $4K |
| 2026-07 | 15 | $5K |
| 2026-08 | 14 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 10 | $2K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $1K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $841 |
Which boards
Weather 67
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
100% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $3K (90% maker / 10% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio100%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$3K
Maker rebate$3K
Taker rebate$336
Maker share90%
Taker share10%
Window2026-03-31 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$20K
Verified lifetime PnL$34K
Verification gap$14K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)