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← All boardsIs badatmath. really profitable on Polymarket?
0x8fbd7cf5f806f563080864694415829f7229a959
Short answer
Mostly yes. badatmath. made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 63 days (2026-05-10 to 2026-10-09), adding up to $44K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$67K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week n/a, last month +$21K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Weather traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 54% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 54%Verified PnL#285 of 624
Beats 67%30-day PnL#192 of 594
Beats 81%Win rate#111 of 592
Beats 44%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#343 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board63
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-10
Last seen2026-10-09
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$67K
Verified lifetime PnL
$8.97MVolume
82.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400
0.75%PnL ÷ Volume
$21K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$67.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $699only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$6,815partial
Liquidity rewards$11.5K
0.75% ROI36.8% Win rate · n=899
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$170.5K · loses the most in Crypto -$1,654
Top 5 winning markets
- +$5,538Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 30?Weather · Yes
- +$4,098Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17?Weather · Yes
- +$3,975Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27?Weather · Yes
- +$2,873Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26?Weather · Yes
- +$2,689Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 31?Weather · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,277Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 11?Weather · No
- -$465Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 11?Weather · Yes
- -$290Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on October 9?Weather · Yes
- -$184Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 10?Weather · No
- -$173Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 1?Weather · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$67KVerified lifetime PnL
$24KEarned off the board
63Days on board
$44KBoard-day sum
—7-day PnL
$21K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 10 | $1K |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $7K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $12K |
| 2026-08 | 5 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 6 | $9K |
| 2026-10 | 9 | $12K |
Which boards
Weather 63
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
50% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $7K (91% maker / 9% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio50%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$7K
Maker rebate$6K
Taker rebate$621
Maker share91%
Taker share9%
Window2026-01-31 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$38K
Rebate$498
Net total$38K
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$44K
Verified lifetime PnL$67K
Verification gap$24K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)