ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs Poligarch really profitable on Polymarket?
0xb40e89677d59665d5188541ad860450a6e2a7cc9
Short answer
Mostly yes. Poligarch made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 77 days (2026-04-13 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $14K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$200K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$5K, last month +$20K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Weather traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 70% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 70%Verified PnL#187 of 624
Beats 66%30-day PnL#197 of 594
Beats 45%Win rate#323 of 592
Beats 42%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#358 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board77
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-13
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$200K
Verified lifetime PnL
$29.63MVolume
62%Win rate (sample) · n=397
0.67%PnL ÷ Volume
-$5K7-day PnL
$20K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$199.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $421only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$32.9Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$10.6K
0.67% ROI76.2% Win rate · n=820
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$40.8K · loses the most in Culture -$1,016
Top 5 winning markets
- +$3,925Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Weather · No
- +$3,135Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Politics · Yes / No
- +$2,783Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Politics · No / Yes
- +$2,616Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Sports · Yes / No
- +$2,599US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,102US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Politics · Yes
- -$2,100US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics · No
- -$1,913Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5Sports · Over
- -$1,802Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?Culture · No
- -$1,622Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?Culture · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$200KVerified lifetime PnL
$186KEarned off the board
77Days on board
$14KBoard-day sum
-$5K7-day PnL
$20K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $4K |
| 2026-05 | 21 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 11 | $2K |
| 2026-08 | 16 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 11 | $603 |
Which boards
Weather 65Politics 8Culture 8Mentions 5Tech 2Finance 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
85% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $33K (98% maker / 2% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio85%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$33K
Maker rebate$32K
Taker rebate$533
Maker share98%
Taker share2%
Window2026-03-31 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$460K
Rebate$2K
Net total$463K
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$14K
Verified lifetime PnL$200K
Verification gap$186K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)