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Is CosmicCedar really profitable on Polymarket?

0xdacf9f8d0341fa3770fae5c7ccd9dcfed23e3c74

Short answer

Mostly yes. CosmicCedar made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 76 days (2026-04-27 to 2026-10-30), adding up to $10K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$30K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$42K, last month +$11K.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Mentions traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 40% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 40%Verified PnL#369 of 624
Beats 60%30-day PnL#237 of 594
Beats 84%Win rate#92 of 592
Beats 41%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#365 of 620

Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board76
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-10-30
VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$30K

Verified lifetime PnL

$3.22MVolume
85%Win rate (sample) · n=394
0.63%PnL ÷ Volume
-$42K7-day PnL
$11K30-day PnL
2026-04 2026-10

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$29.9K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $2,132only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$282partial
Liquidity rewards$1,152
0.93% ROI44.2% Win rate · n=758

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleBuys near-certain outcomes65% of 399 buys at ≥ 90¢Mostly taker83% of 500 archived fills were taker fillsHolds to settlementSells are only 1% of turnover in the last 500 fills (over 12 days)Mainly sports74% of last 500 fills (over 12 days) are sports marketsRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Sports +$28.7K · loses the most in Culture -$15.3K

Sports290 pos.+$28.7K
Tech & science13 pos.+$4,815
Politics40 pos.+$2,776
Crypto5 pos.+$2,204
Weather3 pos.-$115
Finance7 pos.-$1,544
Culture42 pos.-$15.3K

Top 5 winning markets

  1. +$7,911Will Naomi Osaka advance to the Quarterfinals in Women's Singles at the 2026 US Open?Sports · No / Yes
  2. +$5,761Will Beef win the 2025 Internet Invitational?Sports · Yes
  3. +$5,293Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta DreamSports · Atlanta Dream
  4. +$4,752Will Don Mattingly be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?Sports · Yes
  5. +$3,654Will John Harbaugh be the next Giants Head Coach?Sports · Yes

Top 5 losing markets

  1. -$11.6KWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Culture · No
  2. -$5,757Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs Marsborne (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: North American Qualifier PlayoffsSports · Marsborne
  3. -$5,756Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?Finance · Yes
  4. -$4,136Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?Sports · No
  5. -$2,166Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get fewer than 50M views in its first 7 days?Culture · Yes

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01

$30KVerified lifetime PnL
$20KEarned off the board
76Days on board
$10KBoard-day sum
-$42K7-day PnL
$11K30-day PnL

Month by month

MonthDays on a boardSummed PnL
2026-04 2 $87
2026-05 6 $1K
2026-06 14 $1K
2026-07 18 $4K
2026-08 19 $2K
2026-09 16 $1K
2026-10 1 $25

Which boards

Mentions 35Sports 26Tech 13Culture 10Finance 4Politics 3Weather 1

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet

Measured layers

17% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $282 (55% maker / 45% taker)

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

mostly aggressive

Passive ratio17%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Mixed rebate

Visible rebate total$282
Maker rebate$155
Taker rebate$127
Maker share55%
Taker share45%
Window2026-05-12 → 2026-10-26

Profit composition

No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$10K
Verified lifetime PnL$30K
Verification gap$20K

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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)