ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
Does a high win rate mean profit on Polymarket?
Data as of · source: daily Polymarket leaderboard archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots), checked against Polymarket's public APIs · methodology
1275wallets with ≥ 50 settled positions sampled
142 / 50070%+ win-rate wallets that are net negative lifetime
$16Kmedian lifetime PnL of 70%+ win-rate wallets
142 of the 500 Polymarket leaderboard wallets that win at least 70% of their settled positions are still net negative over their lifetime.
| Win rate at least | Wallets | Net negative lifetime | Share | Median lifetime PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 977 | 266 | 27% | $20K |
| 60% | 727 | 193 | 27% | $19K |
| 70% | 500 | 142 | 28% | $16K |
| 80% | 311 | 93 | 30% | $11K |
| 90% | 143 | 41 | 29% | $13K |
High win rate, lifetime loss
| Wallet | Win rate | Settled sampled | Lifetime PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3f302dbb… | 100% | 400 | -$1K |
| 0x4b4071d1… | 100% | 100 | -$32K |
| shugafa | 100% | 400 | -$3K |
| 0x575b2fba… | 100% | 320 | -$22K |
| 0xb16dc316… | 100% | 400 | -$722 |
| 0xc1265aa3… | 100% | 400 | -$11K |
Short answer: no. Win rate counts how often a wallet is right, not how much it wins or loses each time. Buying an outcome at 95¢ wins most of the time and loses 95¢ when it fails. Size and price matter more than hit rate.
Related: is the leaderboard accurate? · check a wallet's real PnL.
FAQ
- Does a high win rate mean a Polymarket trader is profitable?
- No. As of 2026-11-01, 142 of 500 leaderboard wallets with a 70%+ win rate are net negative. Buying outcomes priced near certainty wins often and loses rarely but heavily.
- How is win rate measured here?
- Share of settled positions that closed in profit, sampled from up to 400 closed positions per wallet via Polymarket's public API. Wallets with fewer than 50 sampled positions are left out.
More from ProbPocket:
MethodologyGuidesTop traders by categoryWeekly reportsVerified walletsCheck any wallet