ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs scottilicious really profitable on Polymarket?
0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e
Short answer
Mostly yes. scottilicious made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 79 days (2026-04-26 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $74K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.51M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$12K, last month -$48K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 93% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 93%Verified PnL#44 of 624
Beats 7%30-day PnL#549 of 594
Beats 81%Win rate#111 of 592
Beats 72%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#173 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board79
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-26
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$1.51M
Verified lifetime PnL
$73.15MVolume
82.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400
2.04%PnL ÷ Volume
$12K7-day PnL
-$48K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.51M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $10.1Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,192partial
Liquidity rewards$1,713
2.06% ROI78.1% Win rate · n=424
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$1.03M · loses the most in Other -$5,630
Top 5 winning markets
- +$53.1KWill Biden announce resignation by July 31?Politics · No
- +$49.1KWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?Politics · Yes
- +$47.6KMatt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?Politics · No
- +$47.5KWill Israel invade Lebanon in September?Politics · No
- +$47.4KWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$60.7KWill Israel invade Lebanon before November?Politics · No
- -$55.6KWill Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?Crypto · Yes
- -$52.4KTrump wins every swing state?Politics · No
- -$48.2KIsrael military action against Iran by Friday?Politics · No
- -$42.9KWill the government shutdown end November 12?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$1.51MVerified lifetime PnL
$1.43MEarned off the board
79Days on board
$74KBoard-day sum
$12K7-day PnL
-$48K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 5 | $1K |
| 2026-05 | 21 | $32K |
| 2026-06 | 16 | $19K |
| 2026-07 | 10 | $6K |
| 2026-08 | 15 | $8K |
| 2026-09 | 12 | $9K |
Which boards
Politics 71Sports 10Finance 3Crypto 1All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
69% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (37% maker / 63% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio69%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$446
Taker rebate$747
Maker share37%
Taker share63%
Window2026-05-01 → 2026-10-05
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$74K
Verified lifetime PnL$1.51M
Verification gap$1.43M
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)