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Is Hyperlong really profitable on Polymarket?
0x014c4e7ae2145992861c2d1b124af633a97f820c
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. Hyperlong made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 113 days (2026-04-26 to 2026-09-20), adding up to $54K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$58K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$16K, last month -$3K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 8% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 8%Verified PnL#1030 of 1130
Beats 17%30-day PnL#666 of 810
Beats 27%Win rate#676 of 928
Beats 10%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#854 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board113
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-26
Last seen2026-09-20
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$58K
Verified lifetime PnL
$10.21MVolume
53.4%Win rate (sample) · n=397
-0.79%PnL ÷ Volume
-$16K7-day PnL
-$3K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$58.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,361only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$2,327partial
Liquidity rewards$278
-0.57% ROI50.5% Win rate · n=432
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$30.0K · loses the most in Culture -$39.7K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$37.9KWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Sports · No
- +$20.2KWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · Yes
- +$9,707Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Sports · Yes
- +$8,571Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Sports · Yes / No
- +$8,278MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Crypto · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$45.7KFed rate hike in 2026?Finance · No / Yes
- -$34.4KWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?Culture · No
- -$17.4KWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?Sports · Yes / No
- -$15.8KWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes / No
- -$11.9KWill Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Sports · Yes / No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 29 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$9,569). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$58KVerified lifetime PnL
$112KBelow board-day sum
113Days on board
$54KBoard-day sum
-$16K7-day PnL
-$3K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $760 |
| 2026-05 | 24 | $15K |
| 2026-06 | 22 | $18K |
| 2026-07 | 22 | $10K |
| 2026-08 | 26 | $6K |
| 2026-09 | 16 | $5K |
Which boards
Sports 64Crypto 42Politics 27Finance 26Culture 11Tech 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
12% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (22% maker / 78% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio12%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$508
Taker rebate$2K
Maker share22%
Taker share78%
Window2026-04-30 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$54K
Verified lifetime PnL-$58K
Verification gap-$112K
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)