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Is purplegatto really profitable on Polymarket?
0x032eb1bc893940263ad0b01889f262fc232f2a9e
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. purplegatto made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 80 days (2026-05-14 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $979K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$1.88M. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$126K, last month +$217K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 1% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 1%Verified PnL#617 of 624
Beats 90%30-day PnL#60 of 594
Beats 54%Win rate#272 of 592
Beats 2%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#604 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board80
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-14
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$1.88M
Verified lifetime PnL
$64.61MVolume
66.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-3.22%PnL ÷ Volume
$126K7-day PnL
$217K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$1.88M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $6,552only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$163.2Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$11
-2.91% ROI31% Win rate · n=861
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$62.4K · loses the most in Crypto -$22.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$209.1KWill South Africa win on 2026-06-24?Sports · Yes
- +$137.8KSpread: France (-1.5)Sports · France
- +$120.7KWill Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Sports · Yes
- +$105.7KWill Morocco win on 2026-07-04?Sports · Yes
- +$100.1KBrazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Sports · Over
Top 5 losing markets
- -$288.0KMexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceSports · Mexico
- -$154.4KFrance vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreSports · Yes
- -$136.8KWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?Sports · Yes
- -$129.7KWill United States win on 2026-06-25?Sports · Yes
- -$129.6KWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?Sports · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$1.88MVerified lifetime PnL
$2.86MBelow board-day sum
80Days on board
$1.26MBoard-day sum
$126K7-day PnL
$217K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 12 | $101K |
| 2026-06 | 18 | $796K |
| 2026-07 | 15 | $188K |
| 2026-08 | 20 | $122K |
| 2026-09 | 15 | $56K |
Which boards
Sports 73All markets 28Finance 8Crypto 2Tech 2Politics 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
1% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $163K (0% maker / 100% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio1%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$163K
Maker rebate$316
Taker rebate$163K
Maker share0%
Taker share100%
Window2026-06-09 → 2026-10-30
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$2.21M
Rebate$9K
Net total$2.22M
Window2026-09-30 → 2026-10-30
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$979K
Verified lifetime PnL-$1.88M
Verification gap-$2.86M
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)