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Is varch01 really profitable on Polymarket?
0x0362bb926368b144e0ff98f6828a251e4cb6449e
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. varch01 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 70 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $8K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$45K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$709, last month -$2K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 9% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 9%Verified PnL#1023 of 1130
Beats 19%30-day PnL#655 of 810
Beats 50%Win rate#462 of 928
Beats 9%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#865 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board70
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$45K
Verified lifetime PnL
$4.58MVolume
65.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-0.99%PnL ÷ Volume
-$7097-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$45.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $41only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$2,200partial
Liquidity rewards$1,689
-0.99% ROI65% Win rate · n=403
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Crypto +$34.1K · loses the most in Sports -$17.0K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$8,400Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$4,450Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Sports · Yes
- +$4,198Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Finance · Yes
- +$2,730Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$1,920Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$19.1KRockets vs. KnicksSports · Rockets
- -$5,152Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Politics · Yes
- -$5,000Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETCrypto · Down
- -$4,865Will Francesca Hong win Waukesha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?Politics · Yes
- -$2,350Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ETCrypto · Down
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 3 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$414). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$45KVerified lifetime PnL
$53KBelow board-day sum
70Days on board
$8KBoard-day sum
-$7097-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $983 |
| 2026-05 | 10 | $1K |
| 2026-06 | 9 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 13 | $1K |
| 2026-08 | 22 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 13 | $456 |
Which boards
Sports 35Politics 21Finance 17Tech 13Weather 7Culture 3
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $2K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$2K
Taker rebate$3
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-01-24 → 2026-10-19
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$8K
Verified lifetime PnL-$45K
Verification gap-$53K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)