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← All boardsIs eastpak really profitable on Polymarket?
0x06ac70013cd0c7992ec830ad5df9f7f66d5b79ec
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. eastpak made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 69 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $24K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$8K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$4K, last month +$8K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Finance traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 13% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 13%Verified PnL#537 of 624
Beats 54%30-day PnL#269 of 594
Beats 52%Win rate#280 of 592
Beats 14%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#528 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board69
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$8K
Verified lifetime PnL
$5.59MVolume
65.2%Win rate · n=296
-0.20%PnL ÷ Volume
$4K7-day PnL
$8K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$7,773
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $53only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,148partial
Liquidity rewards$2,774
-0.14% ROI65.2% Win rate · n=296
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$20.7K · loses the most in Politics -$19.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$14.1KWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Politics · No
- +$9,586 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics · No
- +$7,056US government shutdown Saturday?Politics · Yes
- +$6,027Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Politics · No
- +$5,677Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$34.6KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · No
- -$16.6KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Politics · No
- -$11.9KTrump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Politics · No / Yes
- -$11.9KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · No
- -$11.8KWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?Finance · No
Covers the 314 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$8KVerified lifetime PnL
$32KBelow board-day sum
69Days on board
$24KBoard-day sum
$4K7-day PnL
$8K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $1K |
| 2026-05 | 7 | $1K |
| 2026-06 | 13 | $4K |
| 2026-07 | 18 | $7K |
| 2026-08 | 11 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 16 | $9K |
Which boards
Finance 48Politics 25Culture 1Sports 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
100% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio100%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-28
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-04-03 → 2026-10-14
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$24K
Verified lifetime PnL-$8K
Verification gap-$32K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)