ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs bernardbulletin really profitable on Polymarket?
0x1c144e30f405a25f991cbd8baa15d40599090869
Short answer
Mostly yes. bernardbulletin made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 91 days (2026-03-21 to 2026-09-29), adding up to $79K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$199K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$22K, last month -$16K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 69% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 69%Verified PnL#188 of 624
Beats 11%30-day PnL#528 of 594
Beats 72%Win rate#164 of 592
Beats 84%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#99 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board91
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-21
Last seen2026-09-29
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$199K
Verified lifetime PnL
$6.61MVolume
76.4%Win rate (sample) · n=399
2.84%PnL ÷ Volume
-$22K7-day PnL
-$16K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$199.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $3,934only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,532partial
Liquidity rewards$5,403
3.02% ROI76.4% Win rate · n=399
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$116.2K · loses the most in Weather -$614
Top 5 winning markets
- +$9,745Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?Politics · Yes
- +$9,512Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Politics · No
- +$8,418Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Politics · Yes
- +$7,918Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?Politics · Yes
- +$7,566Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$9,112Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Politics · Yes
- -$8,140Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?Politics · No
- -$6,477Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Politics · Yes
- -$3,550Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics · Yes
- -$3,320Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$199KVerified lifetime PnL
$121KEarned off the board
91Days on board
$79KBoard-day sum
-$22K7-day PnL
-$16K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 5 | $5K |
| 2026-04 | 5 | $6K |
| 2026-05 | 16 | $6K |
| 2026-06 | 20 | $27K |
| 2026-07 | 13 | $7K |
| 2026-08 | 22 | $7K |
| 2026-09 | 10 | $21K |
Which boards
Politics 60Mentions 35Tech 9Culture 2All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
78% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (69% maker / 31% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio78%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$476
Maker share69%
Taker share31%
Window2026-04-24 → 2026-10-11
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$79K
Verified lifetime PnL$199K
Verification gap$121K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)