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Is swisstony really profitable on Polymarket?

Name: Is swisstony really profitable on Polymarket? Verified PnL vs leaderboard
Creator: ProbPocket

0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14

Short answer

Mostly yes. swisstony made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 88 days (2026-03-22 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $6.97M on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$18.48M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$6, last month -$728K.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Site-wide rank

Highest verified PnL of the 622 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

#1Verified PnL#1 of 622

Beats 0%30-day PnL#305 of 308

Beats 31%Win rate#388 of 568

Beats 51%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#287 of 591

Compared with the 622 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board88

Archive span202 days

First seen2026-03-22

Last seen2026-09-22

VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$18.48M

Verified lifetime PnL

$1850.58MVolume

53.4%Win rate (sample) · n=399

1.00%PnL ÷ Volume

-$67-day PnL

-$728K30-day PnL

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-31

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$18.48M

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $3,356only the fills we could read — a floor

Rebates (maker + taker)$2.48Mpartial

Liquidity rewards$111.3K

1.00% ROI53.4% Win rate · n=399

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleLooks stoppedLast trade 65 days agoHolds to settlementSells are only 0% of turnover in the last 500 fills (over 6.1 h)Mainly sports74% of last 500 fills (over 6.1 h) are sports marketsRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Sports +$3.05M

Sports400 pos.+$3.05M

Top 5 winning markets

+$1.16MWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?Sports · No
+$960.9KWill Belgium win on 2026-06-21?Sports · No
+$791.2KWill Spain win on 2026-06-15?Sports · No
+$763.7KWill England win on 2026-06-23?Sports · No
+$751.2KWill Morocco win on 2026-07-04?Sports · Yes / No

Top 5 losing markets

-$1.00MSpread: Argentina (-1.5)Sports · Austria
-$808.5KEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5Sports · Under
-$655.7KWill DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?Sports · No
-$583.1KExact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Egypt?Sports · No
-$567.8KWill Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?Sports · No

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-31

$18.48MVerified lifetime PnL

$11.51MEarned off the board

88Days on board

$7.11MBoard-day sum

-$67-day PnL

-$728K30-day PnL

Month by month

Month	Days on a board	Summed PnL
2026-03	2	$103K
2026-04	6	$502K
2026-05	20	$442K
2026-06	15	$4.54M
2026-07	17	$1.04M
2026-08	20	$482K
2026-09	8	$571

Which boards

Sports 87All markets 58

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen

Visible rebatesopen

Profit compositionnot measured yet

Measured layers

32% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2.48M (15% maker / 85% taker)

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Head-to-heads with other top wallets:

Execution style

mostly aggressive

Passive ratio32%

Fills measured500

Window ends2026-08-26

Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Taker-rebate heavy

Visible rebate total$2.48M

Maker rebate$365K

Taker rebate$2.12M

Maker share15%

Taker share85%

Window2026-02-26 → 2026-08-27

Profit composition

No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$6.97M

Verified lifetime PnL$18.48M

Verification gap$11.51M

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Generated 2026-10-31 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-31 (202 snapshots)