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Is rebotsliaf really profitable on Polymarket?
0x206191d01c411a5b346d11a2df2d463a356b8ec9
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. rebotsliaf made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 75 days (2026-03-28 to 2026-10-09), adding up to $157K on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$83K: a gap of $75K that can only come from losing days the board never shows. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$22K, last month +$10K.
All figures are Polymarket's own pre-fee numbers (taker fees not deducted), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Days on board75
Archive span200 days
First seen2026-03-28
Last seen2026-10-09
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$83K
Verified lifetime PnL
$23.46MVolume
29.9%Win rate (sample) · n=398
0.34%PnL ÷ Volume
-$22K7-day PnL
$10K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
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$83KVerified lifetime PnL
$75KBelow board-day sum
75Days on board
$157KBoard-day sum
-$22K7-day PnL
$10K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $7K |
| 2026-04 | 3 | $18K |
| 2026-05 | 22 | $59K |
| 2026-06 | 17 | $12K |
| 2026-07 | 11 | $35K |
| 2026-08 | 14 | $6K |
| 2026-09 | 5 | $10K |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $11K |
Which boards
Politics 33Sports 27Culture 20Finance 9Crypto 5All markets 3
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
93% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $8K (87% maker / 13% taker); rebate covers 5% of recent trading losses
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio93%
Fills measured497
Window ends2026-10-09
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$8K
Maker rebate$7K
Taker rebate$1K
Maker share87%
Taker share13%
Window2026-04-27 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$16K
Rebate$756
Net total-$16K
Rebate covers loss5%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$157K
Verified lifetime PnL$83K
Verification gap-$75K
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Archived 2026-10-29 · not refreshed since then · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-29 (200 snapshots)