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Is BikesAreTheBikes really profitable on Polymarket?
0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c
Short answer
Mostly yes. BikesAreTheBikes made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 87 days (2026-04-26 to 2026-10-11), adding up to $58K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$101K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$32K, last month -$10K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 60% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 60%Verified PnL#245 of 624
Beats 13%30-day PnL#516 of 594
Beats 67%Win rate#190 of 592
Beats 67%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#204 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board87
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-26
Last seen2026-10-11
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$101K
Verified lifetime PnL
$5.98MVolume
73.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
1.71%PnL ÷ Volume
$32K7-day PnL
-$10K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$100.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $0only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$3,161partial
Liquidity rewards$13.1K
1.68% ROI37.8% Win rate · n=775
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$91.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$13.8KWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Culture · No / Yes
- +$11.4KUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Politics · Yes
- +$5,000Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics · No
- +$4,324US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$3,331Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Culture · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,415Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics · No
- -$984Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?Culture · No / Yes
- -$866Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Politics · Yes / No
- -$843Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Politics · Yes
- -$815Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$101KVerified lifetime PnL
$43KEarned off the board
87Days on board
$58KBoard-day sum
$32K7-day PnL
-$10K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $13 |
| 2026-05 | 11 | $5K |
| 2026-06 | 12 | $30K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 24 | $13K |
| 2026-09 | 18 | $6K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $2K |
Which boards
Politics 46Culture 28Tech 27Finance 11Mentions 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
100% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $3K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio100%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$3K
Maker rebate$3K
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-04-22 → 2026-10-23
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$58K
Verified lifetime PnL$101K
Verification gap$43K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)