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← All boardsIs Haradwaith really profitable on Polymarket?
0x21ffd2b7a212a6f277ed3eca1a9f8efcbca90d71
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. Haradwaith made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 108 days (2026-04-27 to 2026-10-29), adding up to $51K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$381K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$62K, last month +$5K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 4% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 4%Verified PnL#596 of 624
Beats 47%30-day PnL#312 of 594
Beats 41%Win rate#345 of 592
Beats 14%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#530 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board108
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-10-29
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$381K
Verified lifetime PnL
$133.30MVolume
59.2%Win rate (sample) · n=382
-0.24%PnL ÷ Volume
-$62K7-day PnL
$5K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$380.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $3only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$63.3Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$686.2Kpartial
-0.29% ROI59% Win rate · n=383
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$25.3K · loses the most in Politics -$9,792
Top 5 winning markets
- +$19.2KWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · Yes
- +$8,815Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · Yes / No
- +$5,687Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics · Yes
- +$4,712Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes / No
- +$4,008Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$9,026US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Politics · No
- -$4,186US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Politics · No
- -$3,697Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics · No
- -$3,191US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Politics · Yes
- -$3,150Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$381KVerified lifetime PnL
$432KBelow board-day sum
108Days on board
$51KBoard-day sum
-$62K7-day PnL
$5K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $270 |
| 2026-05 | 14 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 20 | $6K |
| 2026-07 | 22 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 25 | $22K |
| 2026-09 | 21 | $16K |
| 2026-10 | 3 | $711 |
Which boards
Sports 51Politics 37Tech 35Mentions 23Finance 21Culture 19Weather 17Crypto 3All markets 3
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
100% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $63K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio100%
Fills measured495
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$63K
Maker rebate$63K
Taker rebate$20
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-02-26 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$176K
Rebate$13K
Net total$189K
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$51K
Verified lifetime PnL-$381K
Verification gap-$432K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)