ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs flawfence really profitable on Polymarket?
0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288
Short answer
Mostly yes. flawfence made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 104 days (2026-05-01 to 2026-10-29), adding up to $727K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.05M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$329K, last month +$548K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 90% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 90%Verified PnL#61 of 624
Beats 95%30-day PnL#25 of 594
Beats 77%Win rate#132 of 592
Beats 64%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#221 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board104
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-01
Last seen2026-10-29
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$1.05M
Verified lifetime PnL
$28.70MVolume
81%Win rate (sample) · n=395
1.54%PnL ÷ Volume
$329K7-day PnL
$548K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.05M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $4,362only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$34.7Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$13.8K
3.66% ROI46.6% Win rate · n=691
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$2.77M · loses the most in Culture -$3,345
Top 5 winning markets
- +$453.2KWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes / No
- +$128.8KWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · No
- +$98.8KEngland vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSports · Argentina
- +$70.6KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes / No
- +$70.0KBrazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceSports · Norway
Top 5 losing markets
- -$56.0KDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsSports · TEAM VISION
- -$27.6KSpread: Brazil (-1.5)Sports · Scotland
- -$19.4KWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics · No / Yes
- -$10.4KWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Sports · No
- -$8,974LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$1.05MVerified lifetime PnL
$324KEarned off the board
104Days on board
$727KBoard-day sum
$329K7-day PnL
$548K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 15 | $18K |
| 2026-06 | 22 | $476K |
| 2026-07 | 23 | $94K |
| 2026-08 | 23 | $59K |
| 2026-09 | 14 | $38K |
| 2026-10 | 7 | $41K |
Which boards
Politics 76Sports 23Weather 18Crypto 16All markets 13
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
93% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $35K (89% maker / 11% taker); recent window rebate share 4%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio93%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$35K
Maker rebate$31K
Taker rebate$4K
Maker share89%
Taker share11%
Window2026-04-30 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$135K
Rebate$6K
Net total$140K
Rebate share4%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$727K
Verified lifetime PnL$1.05M
Verification gap$324K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)