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Is DuneMentat really profitable on Polymarket?
0x28ca4e9a04531f2eac0c2770f95db4e1c6a65d19
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. DuneMentat made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 109 days (2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $54K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$11K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$2K, last month -$2K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 12% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 12%Verified PnL#545 of 624
Beats 18%30-day PnL#485 of 594
Beats 68%Win rate#185 of 592
Beats 11%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#547 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board109
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-23
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$11K
Verified lifetime PnL
$3.71MVolume
73.9%Win rate (sample) · n=399
-0.56%PnL ÷ Volume
-$2K7-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$11.5K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,366only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$568partial
Liquidity rewards$8
-0.31% ROI72.8% Win rate · n=405
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$17.0K · loses the most in Culture -$15.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$13.5KWill Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?Politics · Yes
- +$12.6KWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Politics · Yes
- +$9,897Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Politics · No
- +$8,326Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?Politics · No
- +$8,178Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$14.7KWill Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other · Yes
- -$9,379Will Trump say "Corn" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?Politics · No
- -$5,605Kash Patel out by June 30?Politics · Yes / No
- -$4,777Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?Sports · No
- -$4,768Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?Sports · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$11KVerified lifetime PnL
$66KBelow board-day sum
109Days on board
$54KBoard-day sum
-$2K7-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $2K |
| 2026-04 | 3 | $3K |
| 2026-05 | 24 | $15K |
| 2026-06 | 23 | $23K |
| 2026-07 | 21 | $4K |
| 2026-08 | 22 | $6K |
| 2026-09 | 14 | $1K |
Which boards
Sports 56Politics 36Culture 27Mentions 22Finance 7Tech 3
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
1% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $568 (2% maker / 98% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
aggressive (taker)
Passive ratio1%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$568
Maker rebate$12
Taker rebate$556
Maker share2%
Taker share98%
Window2026-05-15 → 2026-10-30
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$54K
Verified lifetime PnL-$11K
Verification gap-$66K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)