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← All boardsIs aviato really profitable on Polymarket?
0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397
Short answer
Mostly yes. aviato made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 77 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-20), adding up to $19K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$204K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$17K, last month +$23K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 70% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 70%Verified PnL#186 of 624
Beats 68%30-day PnL#186 of 594
Beats 66%Win rate#201 of 592
Beats 41%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#366 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board77
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-20
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$204K
Verified lifetime PnL
$32.27MVolume
72.2%Win rate (sample) · n=392
0.63%PnL ÷ Volume
$17K7-day PnL
$23K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$204.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $147only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$957partial
Liquidity rewards$17.6Kpartial
0.63% ROI71.8% Win rate · n=394
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$94.0K · loses the most in Politics -$72.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$43.3KWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · Yes
- +$39.4KWill Navi Pillay win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Culture · Yes
- +$27.9KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$26.1KWill the US strike Syria next?Politics · Yes
- +$24.3KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$86.5KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$21.2KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Politics · No
- -$18.2KWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?Politics · Yes
- -$14.3KIran closes its airspace by May 24?Politics · Yes
- -$12.2KUS strikes Iraq by February 28?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$204KVerified lifetime PnL
$185KEarned off the board
77Days on board
$19KBoard-day sum
$17K7-day PnL
$23K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 19 | $8K |
| 2026-06 | 16 | $4K |
| 2026-07 | 20 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 15 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 4 | $225 |
Which boards
Politics 44Culture 25Tech 17Sports 9Mentions 5Weather 2Crypto 1Finance 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
93% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $957 (99% maker / 1% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio93%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$957
Maker rebate$952
Taker rebate$5
Maker share99%
Taker share1%
Window2026-04-03 → 2026-10-11
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$19K
Verified lifetime PnL$204K
Verification gap$185K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)