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← All boardsIs Dragontree really profitable on Polymarket?
0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc
Short answer
Mostly yes. Dragontree made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 66 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-10-30), adding up to $30K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$152K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$6K, last month -$3K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 66% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 66%Verified PnL#207 of 624
Beats 17%30-day PnL#491 of 594
Beats 46%Win rate#316 of 592
Beats 51%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#302 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board66
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-10-30
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$152K
Verified lifetime PnL
$15.98MVolume
62.7%Win rate (sample) · n=389
0.95%PnL ÷ Volume
-$6K7-day PnL
-$3K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$152.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $4,742only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,439partial
Liquidity rewards$7,103
0.95% ROI61.3% Win rate · n=398
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$136.0K · loses the most in Sports -$43.7K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$46.7KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$35.4KUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics · Yes / No
- +$30.8KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$20.2KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$17.5KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$18.8KWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?Politics · Yes
- -$13.2KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$12.1KWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- -$11.6KUS ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?Politics · Yes
- -$11.2KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$152KVerified lifetime PnL
$122KEarned off the board
66Days on board
$30KBoard-day sum
-$6K7-day PnL
-$3K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $480 |
| 2026-04 | 4 | $4K |
| 2026-05 | 13 | $7K |
| 2026-06 | 8 | $10K |
| 2026-07 | 7 | $2K |
| 2026-08 | 18 | $4K |
| 2026-09 | 10 | $1K |
| 2026-10 | 4 | $2K |
Which boards
Politics 23Mentions 21Tech 16Finance 15Sports 2Crypto 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
67% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (71% maker / 29% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio67%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$416
Maker share71%
Taker share29%
Window2026-03-23 → 2026-10-08
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$30K
Verified lifetime PnL$152K
Verification gap$122K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)