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Is scout really profitable on Polymarket?
0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3
Short answer
Mostly yes. scout made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 59 days (2026-04-17 to 2026-09-20), adding up to $49K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$307K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$6K, last month -$3K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 75% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 75%Verified PnL#151 of 624
Beats 17%30-day PnL#493 of 594
Beats 92%Win rate#46 of 592
Beats 39%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#374 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board59
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-17
Last seen2026-09-20
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$307K
Verified lifetime PnL
$51.62MVolume
93.2%Win rate (sample) · n=398
0.61%PnL ÷ Volume
-$6K7-day PnL
-$3K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$306.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $514only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$773partial
Liquidity rewards$3,357
0.59% ROI93.2% Win rate · n=398
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$179.7K · loses the most in Sports -$4,402
Top 5 winning markets
- +$70.9KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$29.2KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$27.3KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · No / Yes
- +$20.8KWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?Culture · No / Yes
- +$14.5KNetanyahu out by March 31?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$24.9KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$24.8KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$20.8KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$15.1KUS military action against Iran by Saturday?Politics · No
- -$13.1KWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics · Yes / No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$307KVerified lifetime PnL
$258KEarned off the board
59Days on board
$49KBoard-day sum
-$6K7-day PnL
-$3K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 16 | $9K |
| 2026-06 | 8 | $8K |
| 2026-07 | 9 | $8K |
| 2026-08 | 11 | $20K |
| 2026-09 | 9 | $2K |
Which boards
Politics 50Mentions 6Crypto 2Sports 2Culture 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
80% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $773 (98% maker / 2% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio80%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$773
Maker rebate$761
Taker rebate$12
Maker share98%
Taker share2%
Window2026-04-29 → 2026-10-23
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$49K
Verified lifetime PnL$307K
Verification gap$258K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)