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← All boardsIs MisTKy really profitable on Polymarket?
0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b
Short answer
Mostly yes. MisTKy made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 57 days (2026-04-20 to 2026-10-12), adding up to $39K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$337K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$97K, last month +$36K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 77% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 77%Verified PnL#140 of 624
Beats 73%30-day PnL#161 of 594
Beats 48%Win rate#305 of 592
Beats 35%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#402 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board57
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-20
Last seen2026-10-12
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$337K
Verified lifetime PnL
$77.60MVolume
63.6%Win rate (sample) · n=393
0.44%PnL ÷ Volume
-$97K7-day PnL
$36K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$336.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $73only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$13.6Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$50.2K
0.43% ROI63% Win rate · n=397
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$205.6K · loses the most in Sports -$14.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$29.3KWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics · No / Yes
- +$23.7KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · No / Yes
- +$22.1KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$19.0KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · Yes / No
- +$17.2KWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$28.2KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- -$19.6KWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$16.6KWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics · No / Yes
- -$13.1KWill Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Tech & science · No / Yes
- -$11.5KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$337KVerified lifetime PnL
$297KEarned off the board
57Days on board
$39KBoard-day sum
-$97K7-day PnL
$36K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $9K |
| 2026-05 | 9 | $5K |
| 2026-06 | 10 | $6K |
| 2026-07 | 12 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 11 | $6K |
| 2026-09 | 10 | $3K |
| 2026-10 | 3 | $6K |
Which boards
Politics 44Crypto 6Sports 4Finance 3Tech 3Weather 1Mentions 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
91% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $14K (78% maker / 22% taker); recent window rebate share 12%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio91%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-02
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$14K
Maker rebate$11K
Taker rebate$3K
Maker share78%
Taker share22%
Window2026-03-23 → 2026-10-15
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$48K
Rebate$6K
Net total$54K
Rebate share12%
Window2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$39K
Verified lifetime PnL$337K
Verification gap$297K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)