ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.

Is almach really profitable on Polymarket?

Name: Is almach really profitable on Polymarket? Verified PnL vs leaderboard
Creator: ProbPocket

0x3725d52f3c252e8374999cc8617292ea2608ad88

Short answer

Mostly yes. almach made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 65 days (2026-05-26 to 2026-09-29), adding up to $62K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$385K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$17K, last month +$77K.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 79% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 79%Verified PnL#131 of 624

Beats 81%30-day PnL#109 of 594

Beats 33%Win rate#392 of 592

Beats 63%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#227 of 620

Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board65

Archive span203 days

First seen2026-05-26

Last seen2026-09-29

VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$385K

Verified lifetime PnL

$24.24MVolume

54.4%Win rate (sample) · n=399

1.50%PnL ÷ Volume

$17K7-day PnL

$77K30-day PnL

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$384.7K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $672only the fills we could read — a floor

Rebates (maker + taker)$53.9Kpartial

Liquidity rewards$4,757

1.59% ROI58.8% Win rate · n=752

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleShort-cycle specialist95% of last 500 fills (over 7.9 h) are 5/15-min or hourly marketsMostly maker93% of 500 archived fills were maker (resting order) fillsHolds to settlementSells are only 0% of turnover in the last 500 fills (over 7.9 h)Mainly crypto100% of last 500 fills (over 7.9 h) are crypto marketsRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

No category in profit; worst is Crypto -$8,433

Crypto400 pos.-$8,433

Top 5 winning markets

+$2,578Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ETCrypto · Down
+$2,140Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ETCrypto · Down
+$1,948Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETCrypto · Up
+$1,862Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETCrypto · Up
+$1,782Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ETCrypto · Up

Top 5 losing markets

-$2,358Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:15PM-6:30PM ETCrypto · Down
-$2,194Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ETCrypto · Up
-$1,963Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ETCrypto · Up
-$1,851Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ETCrypto · Down
-$1,790Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ETCrypto · Down

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01

$385KVerified lifetime PnL

$322KEarned off the board

65Days on board

$62KBoard-day sum

$17K7-day PnL

$77K30-day PnL

Month by month

Month	Days on a board	Summed PnL
2026-05	5	$3K
2026-06	12	$13K
2026-07	19	$16K
2026-08	17	$18K
2026-09	12	$12K

Which boards

Crypto 65

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen

Visible rebatesopen

Profit compositionopen

Measured layers

93% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $54K (88% maker / 12% taker)

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

passive (market maker)

Passive ratio93%

Fills measured500

Window ends2026-09-25

Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Maker-rebate heavy

Visible rebate total$54K

Maker rebate$47K

Taker rebate$7K

Maker share88%

Taker share12%

Window2026-05-23 → 2026-10-12

Profit composition

Insufficient data

Trade cash$1.77M

Rebate$14K

Net total$1.78M

Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$62K

Verified lifetime PnL$385K

Verification gap$322K

Trade on Polymarket

If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.

Open Polymarket View this trader on Polymarket

Affiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.

Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)