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Is thanksforplayin really profitable on Polymarket?

0x38d812aff0b79f3bf5da2a477f780bcc163eea7c

Short answer

Mostly yes. thanksforplayin made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 65 days (2026-03-21 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $91K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$266K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$11K, last month +$61K.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Finance traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 73% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 73%Verified PnL#169 of 624
Beats 79%30-day PnL#125 of 594
Beats 36%Win rate#376 of 592
Beats 60%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#244 of 620

Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board65
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-21
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$266K

Verified lifetime PnL

$16.75MVolume
55.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
1.38%PnL ÷ Volume
$11K7-day PnL
$61K30-day PnL
2026-03 2026-11

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$266.1K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $2,515only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$10.3Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$13.8K
1.59% ROI55.5% Win rate · n=400

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleMostly taker71% of 499 archived fills were taker fillsIn and out fastMedian hold 56 min across 58 bought-then-sold positionsAdds on strength50% of 46 multi-buy positions added 10%+ above the first priceRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Finance +$227.3K

Finance390 pos.+$227.3K
Crypto7 pos.+$6,045
Politics3 pos.+$1,072

Top 5 winning markets

  1. +$31.9KWill Opendoor reach $6 in April?Finance · Yes / No
  2. +$11.6KSPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 30?Finance · Down
  3. +$8,208Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on September 21?Finance · No
  4. +$6,846Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 29?Finance · Down
  5. +$6,399Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $275 on May 6?Finance · No

Top 5 losing markets

  1. -$1,737Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on July 22?Finance · Yes
  2. -$1,658Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $248 Week of June 29 2026?Finance · Yes
  3. -$1,557Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on April 23?Finance · Yes
  4. -$1,500Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ETCrypto · Down
  5. -$1,337S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?Finance · Down

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01

$266KVerified lifetime PnL
$175KEarned off the board
65Days on board
$91KBoard-day sum
$11K7-day PnL
$61K30-day PnL

Month by month

MonthDays on a boardSummed PnL
2026-03 3 $24K
2026-04 3 $30K
2026-05 15 $10K
2026-06 6 $2K
2026-07 14 $4K
2026-08 10 $2K
2026-09 9 $3K
2026-10 4 $13K
2026-11 1 $4K

Which boards

Finance 65

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen

Measured layers

29% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $10K (48% maker / 52% taker); recent window rebate share 5%

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

mostly aggressive

Passive ratio29%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Mixed rebate

Visible rebate total$10K
Maker rebate$5K
Taker rebate$5K
Maker share48%
Taker share52%
Window2026-02-10 → 2026-10-11

Profit composition

Trade-dominated

Trade cash$31K
Rebate$1K
Net total$32K
Rebate share5%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$91K
Verified lifetime PnL$266K
Verification gap$175K

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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)